As the world grows more fractured and uncertain, the idea of Universal Basic Income (UBI) continues to simmer just beneath the surface of mainstream economic policy. It’s been trialled in pockets, debated in parliaments, and whispered about in think tanks. But perhaps the question isn’t whether UBI will happen, but where. And maybe, just maybe, the place for it isn’t a nation-state at all. It’s the European Union.

Let’s take a moment to imagine: what if your European citizenship came with a guarantee? Not just of free movement, or voting rights, or access to structural funds, but a basic promise — that you would never fall below a certain standard of living, no matter your job, your background, or the region you call home. That’s the power a pan-European UBI could represent.

Why EU-Wide, Not State-by-State?

Currently, social protection is almost entirely handled at the national level. But this fragmented approach has left many behind. It also breeds inequality between member states, distorts labour mobility, and creates resentment in both directions — between net contributors and net recipients, between migrants and locals, between the secure and the precarious.

An EU-wide UBI would change the game. It would signal a genuine commitment to European solidarity — not as a vague ideal, but as a tangible, monthly deposit in your bank account.

Such a scheme would also reduce pressure on national welfare budgets, simplify bureaucratic overhead, and offer a desperately needed lifeline to those locked out of work or stuck in precarious employment. And it would give people the kind of freedom most EU treaties only hint at: the freedom to live, not just to work.

How Much Would It Cost? And How Much Would It Help?

Let’s talk numbers. There are roughly 345 million adults in the EU. A modest UBI of €800 per month — roughly aligned with median living costs across the Union — would cost around €3.3 trillion per year. That’s a vast sum. But it’s also just over 20% of the EU’s total GDP. And importantly, much of that money wouldn’t vanish. It would re-circulate: into local shops, rent, childcare, transportation, education, and mental health.

The multiplier effect could be enormous. Studies of smaller UBI pilots have shown reductions in stress, better health outcomes, increases in school attendance, and even modest entrepreneurial activity. In a Europe plagued by housing stress, wage stagnation, and rising disaffection, a stable financial floor would offer more than relief — it would offer hope.

Not Tomorrow, But in Ten Years?

This doesn’t have to be a moonshot for 2026. Let’s be realistic — and strategic. The EU operates on Multiannual Financial Frameworks (MFFs) — seven-year budgetary cycles. The current one runs from 2021 to 2027. The next two (2028–2034, and 2035–2041) offer a window.

What if we treated UBI as a long-term structural investment? Phase one in the next MFF could fund pilot schemes — in border regions, under-served rural areas, or post-industrial towns. These would offer valuable insight into cost, fraud resilience, and impact. Phase two could see scaling: a partial income supplement for all EU citizens, perhaps starting with youth and the elderly. By 2040, a full rollout could be feasible.

Where Would the Money Come From?

Enter Ingrid Robeyns’ powerful call for limitarianism — the belief that extreme wealth is not just unfair, but socially corrosive. A pan-EU wealth tax, levied on assets above €10 million, could be a pillar of funding. Combine this with digital service taxes on Big Tech, carbon pricing mechanisms, and financial transaction levies, and the funding case starts to materialise.

Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, in their writings on “abundance,” suggest we’ve spent too long fixated on scarcity — the idea that social goods must be rationed and grudgingly shared. But we live in a Europe of surplus — surplus food, vacant homes, unprecedented productivity. The issue isn’t production, it’s distribution.

Neil Vallelly’s critique in Futilitarianism adds another dimension: our economies increasingly produce jobs — and people — that feel useless. A UBI wouldn’t just help materially. It would challenge the moral logic that says your value lies solely in labour market utility. It would say: you matter, full stop.

The EU’s Missing Message

Let’s be honest — the European Union is having a bit of an identity crisis. Technocratic competence can only go so far when many citizens don’t feel seen, let alone protected. Brexit, rising Euroscepticism, and authoritarian drift in member states have shaken the project.

A Universal Basic Income wouldn’t just be policy. It would be messaging. Clear. Concrete. Emotional. The EU exists so you can live with dignity. Not just move freely. Not just compete better. Not just comply with rules.

Freedom to Live

That’s the heart of this vision: freedom to live. To write, to care, to raise a family, to retrain, to volunteer, to rest. A basic income wouldn’t erase capitalism, but it would temper its cruellest edges. And in doing so, it could restore belief in a shared European future.

Not tomorrow. But soon. If we start now.

As always, be excellent to each other.